There’s a very good chance that there will be a shortage of electricity next summer and fall, due to the fact that the California government has a very short memory.
Three gas-powered electricity generating plants that were used as recently as early October to supply electricity to the grid during a heat wave will no longer be available during peak demand to keep the lights on in California. The AES Huntington Beach, AES Alamitos and GenOn Ormond Beach generating stations are on their way to demolition.
This was confirmed at the October 19 business meeting of the California Energy Commission. The Department of Water Rents being considered for California’s Electricity Supply Strategic Reliability Reserve Program.”
The three plants have been part
The three plants have been part of the state’s “reliability reserve” since January 2024, but their contracts will be allowed to expire at the end of the year.
California’s “Electricity Supply Strategic Reliability Reserve Program” was created by a 2022 law, Assembly Bill 205, in the wake of the August 2020 rolling blackouts. But because California is persnickety about everything, it’s not enough simply to procure electricity to avoid devastating and dangerous power outages. It’s also necessary “to sustainably and equitably achieve California’s clean energy future, climate targets, and air quality requirements.” Your electricity sommelier will help you choose something with a bouquet of greenhouse gas reduction. Money is no object, as you may have noticed when you opened your utility bill and it knocked you on the floor.
State laws and regulations, sometimes enacted years ago, often mandate insane and costly outcomes.
In 2010, the State Water Recean or estuarine waters for power plant cooling, known as once-through cooling or OTC. The rules initially applied to 19 power plants. Some made costly conversions. Some were “retired.” Some, like the three that are about to exit the Strategic Reliability Reserve Program, were given extensions in order to maintain the reliability of the grid
If these three power plants were in use
But if these three power plants were in use as recently as early October to provide “reliability” and keep the power on in California during hot weather, which they were, what will replace them in the next inevitable heat wave?
Apparently, something that isn’t built yet.
“Load Serving Entity (LSE) procurement activity, primarily for supply rethe Statewide Advisory Committee on Cooling Water Intake Structures.” The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) “continues to monitor progress” toward procuring the electricity California needs for “grid reliability.”
There are challenges. “Unforeseen project development risks and extreme events drive the need for additional capacity to maintain grid reliability,” the report states. Yet it recommended “no changes” to the “final compliance schedules” of the three remaining once-through cooling gas-powered plants. They’re going to be closed at the end of the year, never to reopen.
File this under Only in California: the bureaucrats
File this under “Only in California”: the bureaucrats warned of the need for “additional capacity to maintain grid reliability” while closing three plants that have been providing additional capacity to maintain grid reliability.
To give you a sense of the breadth and depth of the idiocy governing California energy policy, the report was written by representatives from the California Energy Commission, the CPUC, the California Coastal Commission, State Lands Commission, California Air Re and the State Water Board
This is a joke.
How many California bureaucrats does it take to change a light bulb? Answer: There’s nothing wrong with the light bulb. The power’s out.
Wishful thinking about uncompleted clean energy projects isn’t
Wishful thinking about uncompleted clean energy projects isn’t the state’s only plan for electricity supply reliability. There’s also a sinister contingency plan called the “Demand-Side Grid Support Program.” It’s described in the March 20 report as “a temporary emergency measure that creates incentives for utility customers to further reduce load and dispatch incremental backup generation with existing re
That bureaucratic doublespeak means utility companies can offer their economically stressed customers a little discount on their electric bill if they agree to install a “smart” thermostat and allow the utility to turn off their air conditioning on the hottest days of the year. Then the utility can “dispatch” their electricity to somebody else, perhaps to a needy data center.
It’s not an energy policy as much as it’s the plot of a horror movie.
The Legislature and the governor could have extended
The Legislature and the governor could have extended the contracts for the three coastal power plants and kept them online until adequate replacements were operational. They’ve done that before. Why didn’t they do it this time?
Probably because the governor has just two months left in office, and next summer’s heat wave is somebody else’s problem.
Unfortunately for people who are staying in California, the roughly 3,000 megawatts of electricity generated on demand by the soon-to-be-closed plants can’t be immediately replaced. For perspective, Teslaannouncedthat on October 6 at 8:00 p.m., its “Virtual Power Plant” of Powerwall batteries feeding electricity back to the grid set a new record: 634 megawatts.
In July, the Assembly Utilities and Energy Committee
In July, the Assembly Utilities and Energy Committee held an oversight hearing on “The State of Electricity Reliability: Rising Demand, Shifting Reserves, and Retiring Resources.” A backgroundreportwarned that by 2027, “demand will have grown,” but California will be lacking “key parts of the state’s emergency toolkit,” including the coastal gas plants. And “the long-term outlook is worse,” with new state modeling showing that the grid can meet its reliability target through 2031 only if everything goes right. “By 2036,” the report warns, “every scenario tested – even the optimistic one – shows a shortfall,” partly because of increased demand from data centers and electrification.
Right now, California meets its day-to-day (and night-to-night) power needs by importing more electricity than any other state. Electricity rates have doubled in ten years in California, and next summer, the lights may go out.
This is not national leadership. It’s blithering idiocy.
Write Susan@SusanShelley.com and follow her on X @Susan_Shelley
