Before Democrats stunned Texas in this week’s midterm elections, Orange County made national headlines in 2018 as a famously conservative stronghold washed over by an electoral “blue wave” that swept all its congressional seats. Eight years later, a majority of O.C. voters lean Democrat as early returns for top of the ticket races show, but the results underscore a persistently purple county politics.
As of Thursday afternoon, 54% of the county’s voters picked Democrat Xavier Becerra to be California’s next governor. Republican Steve Hilton, who touted the endorsement of President Trump, received roughly 46% of O.C.’s vote. The governor’s race was more competitive in this county than across the state where Becerra claimed 64.5% of the vote to become the first Latino elected to the position in the state’s history.
Los Angeles County favored Becerra by 72% while San Diego County topped out at 60% support for the candidate. The early returns align with a “Still Purple” poll by the UCI School of Social Ecology in April ahead of the primary election found that O.C. remained politically competitive as 34% of residents identified as Democrats, 30% identified as Republicans and 36% identified as independent or something else.
What that is telling us is that Orange
“What that is telling us is that Orange County voters are much more evenly split than elsewhere in the state,” said Jon Gould, dean of the UCI school that polled voters. “Even in a year that is huge for Democrats nationwide, Orange County still is pretty much purple.” Will O’Neill, chair of the Republican Party of Orange County, pointed to local races in Costa Mesa, Newport Beach and Huntington Beach as silver linings for his party.
“Hilton ran an energetic campaign that went into areas throughout the state that have been ignored,” O’Neill said. “But the national sentiment was clearly against Republicans and races up and down the ballot suffered because of it. Orange County Republicans have turned out in significantly higher numbers than four years ago and we will get good local wins because of it.” UCI’s School of Social Ecology will be conducting a post-election poll, but there are other early takeaways from the vote.
O.C.’s tighter margin in the gubernatorial race mostly held firm in statewide contests down the ballot for lieutenant governor, secretary of state, controller, treasurer, insurance commissioner and the state Board of Equalization. California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta bested former Huntington Beach City Atty. Michael Gates with 53.5% of the county’s votes. “It really looks like straight-ticket voting,” Gould said.
Who voters are picking for the statewide races
“Who voters are picking for the statewide races is pretty much a party decision, not so much about the individual candidate.” Californians also weighed in on 14 ballot propositions. Much like the governor’s race, some margins were tighter in O.C. than in the statewide vote. Voters statewide soundly rejected Prop. 39, which called for voter identification at the polls, by a 59% to 41% margin.
But in O.C., the difference was only 2.5% in opposition to the ballot measure. O.C. voters were poised to reject Prop. 40, the proposed one-time tax on billionaires, more fervently than across the state. About 60% locals voted no on the measure, as opposed to 54.5% statewide. While Prop. 41 and Prop. 42, which would invalidate Prop. 40 even if the one-time tax were to pass, show tighter margins in favor of them statewide, O.C.
voters show wider gaps in support. “The propositions suggest that this is a county where people are concerned about taxation, and they do not want to be extending taxation too much,” Gould said. Even if the midterms do not show a blue “tsunami” in O.C. amid high gas prices, inflation and the unpopular Iran war, Democrats in the county continue to work toward moving beyond purple politics.
The local party crossed an important milestone
The local party crossed an important milestone by reaching more than 700,000 registered Democrats in the lead-up to Election Day. The push gives Democrats a 64,150 edge over Republicans in O.C.’s registered voters. O.C. is also on track to have its congressional delegation be all-Democrat, save for one representative. Redistricting pitted Rep. Young Kim against Rep. Ken Calvert, both incumbent Republicans, for the right to represent the 40th Congressional District, with Calvert leading the race.
“The county may be getting incrementally bluer,” Gould said. “It would be hard to read this election as generational change at this moment. While the six-to-seven point differences in statewide races would be good almost anywhere else in the U.S., it’s not a huge difference against what else is happening.”
