Put politely, numerous readers have questioned my sanity after seeing recent columns about how California’s job market is outperforming the national employment market so far this year.
I understand the feelings, as there is a surprisingly strong resilience in the state’s economy in 2026, especially given the external forces you’d expect to be major challenges.
My critics suggest I must be ignoring news of layoffs across the state. Or that my trusty spreadsheet is broken.
Yes, I see the job cuts. But anecdotes aren’t always economic trends. My trusty spreadsheet — filled with federal and state employment data plus stats from WARN Database — found declines in three measurements of job loss.
One reason we see so many layoff stories is that national rules require employers who cut a significant number of workers to file a layoff notice. Of course, California has its own stricter standards, making state-to-state comparisons impossible.
Still, these warning documents are public record and allow reporters or other interested parties to see who is cutting workers. And let’s be honest: the fear of losing one’s paycheck makes us curious about any layoff.
Economic confusion can arise because employers aren’t required to inform the government when they’re creating jobs. So the flip side of layoffs — who’s hiring — remains a bit of a mystery.
Nonetheless, look at what the total count of layoff warnings tells us.
So far this year, announced layoffs in California averaged 121 per month through mid-September. That’s 8% below 2025’s pace.
California’s 2026 layoff warnings involve an average of 6,500 workers per month. That’s 11% fewer jobs cut than the previous year’s pace.
Other drops
Declining layoff notices are not the only hint about the health of the job market.
The number of people officially out of work is dropping. California averaged 1.05 million unemployed workers in the first seven months of 2026. That’s 3% below the same period in 2025.
And an average of 41,100 workers a week filed unemployment insurance claims through the first eight months of 2026. That’s off 7% in a year.
Real pain
Just because a hot California trend in 2026 is fewer job cuts doesn’t mean we’re seeing a hiring spree.
It’s simply better-than-expected results for workers who fear losing their paycheck.
Now, any layoff causes real pain for the workers who are let go, especially when finding a job is getting tricky.
The number of discouraged California workers — those who want a job but aren’t actively looking — rose 7% in a year to 70,000 for 2026’s first half.
Also, whatever 2026’s job market is doing, it does not erase numerous long-term challenges that California employers face.
Plus, California may not be enjoying a broad job market renaissance. It’s a reasonable guess that 2026’s improvement is largely tied to a booming Bay Area economy benefiting from the race for artificial intelligence superiority.
Intriguingly, Californians may be quietly noticing. Could the buoyant job market be why the state’s consumer confidence index has been more upbeat than the nation’s in 2026?
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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